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Finally, the first new polling in the West Virginia Republican primaries for governor and U.S. Senate is out, and while it needs to be taken with a grain of salt, it does provide some interesting perspective.
According to a poll conducted between March 19 and March 21 by Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media (the owner of several TV stations in West Virginia, including WOWK, WTRF, WBOY, WVNS, as well as neighboring WDCW which covers the Eastern Panhandle from its Hagerstown bureau), Morrisey continues to lead in the GOP race for governor, but Huntington business Chris Miller is creeping up.
Of those polled, 33% of respondents said they would support Morrisey if the primary were held today, with 16% supporting Miller, 14% supporting former House Judiciary Committee Chairman Moore Capito, 6% supporting Secretary of State Mac Warner, and 29% undecided. There is also a missing 2% preventing the total percentages adding up to 100%.
The poll was conducted via cell phones (text message-to-web) and land lines though interactive voice response (IVR), talked to 735 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of 3.6%.
The poll tells me a couple of things. First, Morrisey might still be leading the race, but he's not gaining new supporters. The people who support him are the same as last year. That should be concerning for groups like Club for Growth (which is spending its own money and funding the Morrisey-supporting Black Bear PAC) and American for Prosperity, which has been spending big on ads, mailers, and a Morrisey street team. All of that money being spent and no gains?
Second, it shows that all the spending on back-to-back-to-back TV ads by Miller is working. Most of the polls last year had both Miller and Warner trailing Morrisey and Capito. But Miller has been aggressive - maybe even too aggressive based on the feedback I've received on his most recent ad with the guns - with his TV ad buys. Morrisey's supporters in Club for Growth and Black Bear have certainly taken notice, since their attack ads are focused on Miller, not Capito.
And speaking of Capito, the polling shows that his plan of traveling all over the state and doing constant meet-and-greets is not moving the needle. I understand the desire to get in front of as many people as possible, but with only one TV ad up that I'm aware of, he is not reaching as many people as he thinks he is.
Lastly, the 29% undecided number means there are still plenty of voters up for grabs with more than 50 days left until the May 14 primary. That gives the candidates more time to retool and make improvements.
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Speaking of TV ads, Club for Growth Action has TV ads on the air attacking Miller for using the COVID-19 Paycheck Protection Program to keep his employees paid during the worst parts of the pandemic in 2020 when non-essential businesses were shut down.
I'm unsure why this is an attack. Many businesses took part in this program. I have friends with businesses who received PPP loans to keep workers on the payroll when business dropped during the spring and summer of 2020.
Interestingly, Club for Growth backed Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno in his successful GOP primary for U.S. Senate last week. As Jacob Rubashkin -- a deputy editor for Inside Elections -- pointed out on X (formerly Twitter) last week, Moreno had also taken out PPP loans for his auto businesses.
So, which is it, Club for Growth: is OK to take PPP loan money or not?
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In the U.S. Senate Republican primary, Gov. Jim Justice still maintains a huge lead over U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, with Justice receiving 54% to Mooney's 17%. Brian McKinney had 3%, and 22% were undecided (again, this poll has a missing 4% that is unaccounted for.
This is despite numerous news stories detailing Justice's business issues and multiple controversies within his own departments. Justice remains popular with the public. And given his personal financial situation, he can't self-fund his Senate campaign. His campaign is reliant on donations and support from the National Republican Senatorial Committee and other third-party political action committees.
The poll was conducted prior to the news coming out about Justice being unaware of the $3.5 million in liens placed on the historic Greenbrier Resort by the State Tax Department.
Justice constantly says he is not involved in the day-to-day operations of his businesses, though according to an organization chart made public in one of Gov. Justice's many federal lawsuits, Justice maintains a majority position in his companies, which are privately held.
As I and others have reported, Justice has still been involved with his businesses as far as issuing multi-million-dollar loan guarantees, even while serving as governor. I'm not sure which is worse here: him being involved behind-the-scenes with his businesses while feigning ignorance, or him actually being ignorant, especially since the tax liens have been in place since February and they came from his State Tax Department.