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It remains to be seen what U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin will do in 2024. Will he seek the Democratic nomination for another term in the U.S. Senate? Will he make a third-party run for U.S. President? Will he take a guest spot on "The Masked Singer?"
Regardless of what he does, Manchin, D-W.Va., is doing everything he can short of switching his party registration to win back the approval of a West Virginia electorate that has shifted its allegiances over the last several years to Republicans on the whole and to former (now indicted) president Donald Trump as its standard bearer.
A good example is the Mountain Valley Pipeline project that Republicans were able to secure in the debt ceiling deal two weeks ago. Provisions in the deal will help overcome legal hurdles to completing the 303-mile pipeline from Wetzel County to Southwest Virginia. Project officials say the project is close to 94% complete, but federal legal challenges continue to slow the project up.
But to hear Manchin tell it, he and he alone helped secure the MVP in the debt ceiling deal. Reading a Politico piece, you'd think the only way the debt ceiling deal came together at all was because of the efforts of Manchin and his fellow centrist, U.S. Sen. Krysten Sinema, I-Ariz. Then again, that information came directly from interviews with Manchin and Sinema with no confirmations from either House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., or the White House -- the two groups that negotiated the debt ceiling deal.
Look, I'm not saying Manchin didn't play a role or didn't call President Joe Biden, McCarthy, and the debt ceiling negotiation team. But I am trying to put Manchin's role into context versus parroting talking points that give Manchin more credit than is due. As my reporting has shown, both U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., and Rep. Carol Miller, R-W.Va., had direct lines into McCarthy and other negotiators and were also pushing for MVP to be included.
Yes, Manchin included completion of MVP in his permitting reform package, which he continues to say was not separate from the Inflation Reduction Act even though they were, literally, two separate things. But nearly all of West Virginia's congressional delegation - including former Republican 1st District Congressman David McKinley - were vocal supporters of MVP, and MVP was also included in Capito's permitting reform package the Senate Republicans tried to amend into the IRA with no success.
The deal between Manchin and congressional Democratic leaders last summer may have included an effort to push a permitting reform package in order to secure Manchin's support for the IRA, but when it came time to including the permitting reform package in the continuing resolution to keep the government funded, Manchin had to pull it from the bill because progressive Democrats were a no and Republicans were unwilling to give Manchin a win after supporting the IRA.
The fact of the matter is, nearly all of Manchin's political troubles can be tied to the $737 billion Inflation Reduction Act, the slimmed down version of the $1.75 trillion Build Back Better social spending package that Manchin said no to at the end of 2021. One need only look at his poll numbers from Morning Consult. Manchin had a 57% approval rating at the end of April 2022. That dropped to 38% one year later.
That's why Manchin has been going hard in the paint against the Biden administration, complaining about how the White House is implementing the IRA, pushing back against some of Biden's various nominees, and being one of the first to push Biden to come to the debt ceiling negotiating table with McCarthy and House Republicans. Manchin knows he has to tack back to the political right if he hopes to have the support of West Virginia voters.
I will say it is inappropriate for anyone to write off Manchin in 2024. He is one of the best retail politicians still out there. He has reversed bad poll numbers before. David Axelrod, the man who helped Barack Obama win the presidency in 2008, said Manchin is done when looking at the most recent U.S. Senate poll numbers showing Republican Gov. Jim Justice ahead of Manchin by double digits. But underestimate Manchin at your own peril.
I'd also point out that despite the dislike many have for the poorly named Inflation Reduction Act, West Virginia is starting to see investments and economic development tied to incentives and tax breaks in the IRA. Last week, Clean-Seas announced it would locate a facility in Kanawha County to take waste plastic and create diesel fuels, industrial oils, and even hydrogen. Another hydrogen production project could be coming at the Pleasants Power Plant. Form Energy recently broke ground on its proprietary iron-air battery manufacturing facility.
I could go on, as there many projects going on in the state benefiting from IRA and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that both Manchin and Capito helped negotiate in 2021. If Manchin can showcase these projects and connect them back to the IRA, voters may come around.