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Here we are, with West Virginia's primary elections on Tuesday and the conclusion of one of the more vitriolic campaign seasons I've ever witnessed.
I'm a political junkie, but this campaign season has been political overload, with all the TV and radio commercials, mailers, and even text messages from candidates. I know many of you feel the same way because you let me know.
Medium Buying, a company that focuses on broadcast media ad buys, did a breakdown of how much Republican candidates for governor paid for their media ad buys, determining that more than $22 million has been spent between the candidates, third party political action committees, and independent expenditure committees since the first ads were bought last year.
The biggest spender on media ad buys was Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and pro-Morrisey groups. The Morrisey campaign has spent $2.5 million as of Friday, with Black Bear PAC (funded in part by Club for Growth) spending $9.2 million. That gets Black Bear and Club for Growth pretty close to their promise to spend $10 million on behalf of Morrisey.
Huntington businessman Chris Miller has spent $5.5 million on broadcast media, even doing what few candidates can -- spending money on TV ads in the expensive Washington, D.C., media market that overlaps with the Eastern Panhandle. As someone told me the other day, they don't think a candidate in the state has done that since Jay Rockefeller. West Virginia Forward, the independent expenditure committee run by Miller's father, spent $2.1 million on ads attacking Morrisey.
Team West Virginia, a political action committee supporting former House Judiciary Committee Chairman Moore Capito, also spent $2.1 million on TV and radio ads. The Capito campaign has only spent about $588,000, focusing more on getting Capito physically in front of voters and relying on his endorsement by Gov. Jim Justice.
Secretary of State Mac Warner has spent the least, with only $17,000 spent on broadcast ad buys. Despite his recent feud with WV MetroNews, that money has been spent on radio ads heard on MetroNews, one of which includes an endorsement by scandal-plagued 2020 election denier and fired Trump administration National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.
So, will the person with the most TV and radio ads win? We'll find out soon enough.
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The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll released last week is probably the best poll I've seen as far as the quality and where things are going into Election Day.
I had a full story on the poll last week, but in short: Morrisey had 28% support, followed by Capito at 25%, Miller at 19%, and Warner at 12%. Undecideds are becoming less undecided, and everything is tightening up.
I was looking at election results for the 2018 midterm GOP primary for U.S. Senate where Morrisey won, going on to lose to U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., in the general election. Morrisey won that primary with 34.9% of the vote, compared to former congressman Evan Jenkins with 29.2% of the vote.
Morrisey and Jenkins were separated by 5.7 points in that race. In the Emerson College/Nexstar poll, Morrisey and Capito are only separated by 3 points, and considering the poll has a 4.1% margin of error, they could either be much closer or further apart.
A source in the Morrisey campaign bragged to me last week that with all of the negative ads attacking Morrisey that his support was remaining steady. But considering all the money that has been raised by Morrisey (more than $3 million election year-to-date) and all the money being spent on behalf of Morrisey (around $10 million) to only remain static, that just seems like a terrible return on investment.
If Morrisey wins Tuesday, I'm sure they will say a win is a win. But we're also talking about a relatively safe GOP seat. That's a lot of money spent for a safe "R" seat. And if he loses, especially to Capito, whose spending has been in the middle of the top four GOP candidates, I think some donor groups are going to have to sit down and hash some things out.
And will Capito's endorsement by Justice push Capito to a narrow win? Ask the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce. There was polling in 2022 showing support for Amendment 2, which would have given the Legislature state constitutional authority to begin phasing out tangible personal property taxes. Then Justice came out against Amendment 2 and went on a road tour. Amendment 2 failed in the 2020 general election by nearly 30 points.
In summary, it can go either way. You might even call it a two-man race based on the Emerson College/Nexstar poll. Either way, it should be fun to watch as the ballots come in Tuesday night.