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The U.S. Senate campaign of 2nd District Congressman Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., released some internal polling last week setting the table for a possible challenge from Gov. Jim Justice.
Before I get into their results, always remember to take internal polling released by campaigns with copious amounts of salt. Campaigns very rarely share the full poll results, the toplines, the questions asked, etc.
It's why I don't really like to use internal polls for stories, but for a weekly political column my rules are a little more lax. Also, it should be noted that in hindsight, Mooney's internal polling during the Republican primary for the 2nd District in 2022 was pretty spot on, showing him ahead of former 1st District Congressman David McKinley.
This poll was conducted by Osage Research between April 5-6 using live callers to both cell phones and landlines, and using text-to-web interviews. The margin of error was 4.9% and the poll was weighted for age, gender, and geography to better account for the likely primary voters in West Virginia, which allows for Republicans and independents to vote.
According to Mooney campaign advisor Mark Harris, Justice maintains a large name I.D., which makes sense given he has won two statewide elections, maintains a weekly web briefing for all to see, and travels frequently with his English bulldog Babydog. But when the poll respondents were made aware of some of Justice's actions as governor that could be perceived as not conservative, Mooney came out ahead in the polling.
"The survey shows that although Justice starts with a large name identification advantage, once voters are informed of Justice's liberal record, Rep. Alex Mooney jumps out to a lead," Harris wrote. "The reality is that this race will become the classic liberal vs. conservative primary."
Respondents were informed about Justice's past actions, then asked who they would support in a primary. According to the poll, 45% would vote for Mooney, while 41% said they would support Justice with 14% refusing to say or were undecided.
Respondents were told of Justice's support for the Employment and Housing Non-Discrimination Act, also called the Fairness Act, which would add sexual orientation and gender identity as protected classes in the state's Human Rights Act. After informed of this, 70% of respondents said they were less likely to support Justice.
During his campaign for a second term as Governor, Justice said he supported the Fairness Act during a debate with Kanawha County Commissioner Ben Salango, his Democratic opponent. and would sign such a bill if the Legislature presents him with it. Despite several attempts over the years by both the Democratic-led and Republican-led Legislatures, the Fairness Act has never made it out of the Legislature.
"I think, really, truly that we have no place in our society to be discriminatory towards anyone at any time," Justice said during a debate hosted by WV MetroNews Talkline host Hoppy Kercheval in 2020. "I mean that's terrible to do and it's degrading and so I concur."
Respondents were made aware of Justice's support for multiple spending bills pushed by President Joe Biden. These include the $1.7 trillion American Rescue Plan Act and the $1.3 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The state received $1.35 billion from ARPA for COVID-19 expenses and infrastructure projects, while the state is expected to receive between $6 billion and $ billion from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill.
Mooney voted against both bills along with Rep. Carol Miller, R-W.Va. Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., voted for the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill and were both instrumental in the negotiations on the bill. When informed of Justice's support of both bills, 60% of respondents said they were less likely to support him.
Respondents were told that Justice wanted longer COVID-19 shutdowns and that Justice attacked other Republican governors for lifting shutdowns and mask orders. Respondents were also told Justice bullied people into getting COVID-19 vaccines. Respondents were 55% less likely to support Justice after being told this.
I have no idea where the Mooney people are getting that Justice wanted longer COVID-19 shutdowns than even President Joe Biden (who was only a Democratic candidate for president at the time). Did Justice criticize Republican governors? He did. Justice was particularly critical of Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp for re-opening too early during the shutdowns in the spring of 2020. But so was then-President Donald Trump. As for bullying people to get the vaccine, Justice was certainly passionate about it, as he should have been. The vaccines have saved lives.
Finally, respondents were told Justice pledged not to raise taxes when he first ran for Governor (as a Democratic candidate) in 2016, but then tried to get the Legislature to raise taxes in 2017 to fill a more than $500 million hole in the general revenue budget.
The Republican-led Legislature refused, passing a budget that had cuts instead of increases. Justice vetoed that budget on a silver platter that had cow dung on it. Later that summer, the Legislature passed a new budget that Justice allowed to become law without his signature. When respondents were informed of this, 54% said they were less likely to support Justice.
Justice, of course, has not announced a campaign for Senate, though sources say Justice does have a date in mind for announcing. This hasn't stopped Mooney for going hard at Justice on social media. It's only going to get uglier from here.